The four future scenarios

Research firms Berenschot and Kalavasta designed four climate-neutral energy scenarios for the Netherlands in 2050. A precondition in each of these scenarios is that energy supply and demand must be in balance at all times, with not only the energy carriers gas and electricity in scope, but also heat, hydrogen, green gas and CO₂. The future scenarios are expressed as ‘four corners that mark out the playing field’; this makes it possible to assess what is needed in terms of flexibility and infrastructure.

The four future scenarios in a nutshell:

1. ‘Regional control’ scenario
   In the ‘regional control’ scenario, the emphasis is on control via the local communities and citizens and a high degree of autonomy and a significant influence of circularity. This scenario is characterised by heat grids fed by geothermal energy and by far-reaching electrification. There is strong growth in solar and wind energy. Add to this a decline in industrial activity and the result is a Netherlands that is almost completely self-sufficient in energy. Gas continues to be available to cover periods of peak demand (auxiliary boilers and power stations). This gas comes in the form of green gas from local biomass and green hydrogen produced via electrolysis mainly using wind and solar power.
   
   
2. ‘National control’ scenario
   The ‘national control’ scenario, in which the national government is in charge, has less growth in heat grids, but very strong electrification in all consumption sectors. The scenario has very extensive solar and wind capacity – the largest of all scenarios – and is also characterised by imports, partly to supply a stable industrial sector that is becoming more sustainable through electrification. In this scenario, gas, in the form of green gas and green hydrogen, is still needed to power back-up power stations and industry.
   
   
3. ‘European carbon-control regime’ scenario
   In the ‘European carbon-control regime’ scenario, the control mainly takes place by means of a European carbon tax that applies to all sectors. This results in a greater emphasis on green gas in various sectors. There is strong growth in solar and wind energy. In this scenario, industry will grow – without carbon emissions – through a combination of hybrid electrification and CCS, including via the production of blue hydrogen. Partly because of the energy hybridisation, this scenario results in a moderate peak in electricity demand. There are more imports than in the previous two scenarios. There is also a continuing role for gas in the residential areas and in other sectors, all supplied in the form of green gas and a mix of blue hydrogen and imported green hydrogen.
   
   
4. ‘International control’ scenario
   In the ‘international control’ scenario the market decides, and we search the globe for the most economic options. In this scenario, large volumes of hydrogen are being imported from countries where it may be easier to produce this. There is less use of green gas, but on the other hand there is significant use of energy hybridisation, with hydrogen in particular serving as a back-up, also to support the growth of industry. Because of the high volumes of imported hydrogen, less wind power is needed for electrolysis in the Netherlands, which is why this scenario shows the lowest level of sustainable electricity being produced within the country. Nonetheless, there is still strong growth in national electricity generation between 2030 and 2050. Gas is mainly supplied in the form of imported hydrogen.

It is not the intention of the scenario study to draw conclusions about what would be the best climate-neutral future for our society, nor is it the intention that one of the scenarios be chosen or excluded. It is perfectly possible to combine several of the scenarios. The path we take towards becoming a climate-neutral society and exactly what our energy system will look like in 2050 depend on societal considerations and choices.

If you would like to get more background on the scenarios and more detailed explanations of these, you can download: